Dgenz Crypto Weekly 055

In partnership with

Trump Teases $2,000 “Tariff Dividend“ Check

Is Donald Trump about to stimmy the market this time instead of dump it?

Over the weekend, Trump took to Truth Social to float the idea of giving Americans $2,000 checks, and not from the money printer this time, but from “billions” in tariff revenue he says he’s stacked up.

“No more cash for greedy insurance companies. Let’s give it to the people instead.” — DJT, basically.

He claims the U.S. is now “the richest, most respected country in the world” (lol), and that it’s time to start handing out dividend checks to the everyday chad. His idea? Take all the tariff cash and pipe it straight into Americans’ Health Savings Accounts or even just cash.

But there’s a catch, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says, “uhh… we haven’t talked about this,” and nothing can happen until the government reopens.

Will this actually happen?

No clue. This is the third time he’s promised a stimmy check and we haven’t seen any follow through yet, but here’s what happens if it does:

• $2k stimulus = asset prices go brrr (yes, even crypto)

• $224.7B raised in tariffs so far ≠ enough to cover $400B+ in checks

• Would the rest come from the ol’ money printer? Probably

• Will anyone care if their bags pump? Definitely not

What does this mean for the markets?

Stimmy checks + rate cuts = inflation risk goes up
The Fed is currently fighting unemployment more than inflation, but this could flip fast if consumer prices start ripping again.

TL;DR
More checks = more spending
More spending = more inflation
More inflation = rate hikes
Rate hikes = pain

The Shutdown Showdown

The US government’s been on pause like a Netflix show you forgot to finish, and the longest shutdown in history might finally end in the next couple of days.

After 1.4M workers went unpaid, food aid stalled, and airport delays made flying worse than a Spirit layover, the House is voting today on whether to get things moving again. But it’s tight, the party can only afford to lose two votes in the lower chamber.

The Senate already said yes (60-40), and Trump’s promised to sign it faster than he tweets in all caps: “WE’RE OPENING UP THE COUNTRY”.

Still, even if the vote passes, it could take days to reboot ops, and weeks for airlines to recover, especially with the Thanksgiving travel chaos looming.

But what's inside the funding package?

The 328-page deal includes:

• Funding for most agencies till January 30

• SNAP food aid, USDA, Congress, Veterans Affairs funded till September

• Back-pay for ALL federal workers

• Rehiring those laid off during the shutdown

• A December vote on healthcare subsidies

Shutdowns don’t usually crash the economy, but they do mess with the plumbing.

• Loans, permits, contracts? Delayed or frozen

• Small biz contractors? Out of pocket (no back pay)

• GDP hit: ~$15B/week, or 0.1–0.2% off growth per week

That’s… not ideal… but here's the spicy bit:

Once the government reopens, the Treasury can start unloading ~$1T from its checking account (the TGA), straight into the economy. That’s not just bullish... that’s rocket fuel.

Best Price. Every Trade.

Built for active crypto traders. CoW Swap always searches across every major DEX and delivers the best execution price on every swap you make. Smarter routes. Better trades. No wasted value. Find your best price today. So why trade on any one DEX when you can use them all?

Find your best price today

Are We in an AI Bubble?

Okay... that’s enough politics for one day. Let’s talk about the other monster under the bed: the so-called “AI bubble.”

Everyone’s comparing it to the Dot-Com days, but is it really the same beast?

Well, circular revenue loops are back.. kinda.

The Dot-Com collapse was mostly caused by “circular vendor financing” i.e. companies making money off each other with no real customers. A closed loop of fake demand. And that’s showing up in AI too, but this time most players have real cash, real customers, and no debt addiction.

If there’s one domino to watch though, it’s OpenAI.

They’re raising absurd amounts of money like it’s bull season, yet they’re expecting $20B in revenue this year, and $40B next year. If they trip, it could shake the whole AI sector… but likely not anytime soon.

Why should you care?

Because AI is the new arms race, and nation states are joining the war. Governments will print new money just to stay competitive.

And when the money printer goes brrrr?
Scarce assets like crypto go up.

Want to stay ahead of the moves? Join our Discord community and get real-time insights on the market—daily, hourly, anytime you need them. Learn from our 4 expert chart masters and engage with a community of traders out there in the trenches with you.

Know a few friends who need crypto alpha in their life? Share your link, collect rewards and don’t miss out on the soon to be announced Dgenz perks - Start referring today!