Dgenz Crypto Weekly 057

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Are We Back?

After months of charts looking like a murder scene, we finally got a heartbeat.

Crypto’s showing signs of life, and while it’s not a bull run... it’s not quite a funeral either.

Here’s how things are looking over the last 24hrs:

• BTC: +5% — still the king

• ETH: +4.3% — trying its best

• SOL: +3.6% — doing things

So what caused this tiny dopamine hit to our portfolios?

No, it wasn’t Trump. Not a celeb pump. Not a meme coin miracle.

It was the most boring thing ever: macroeconomics.

aka, the thing nobody reads but everyone trades on.

Rate Cuts Might Be Back on the Menu

A week ago, traders only gave it a 22% chance we’d see a December rate cut.

Now? 83% chance of a 25bps cut.

That’s a massive shift, and it means:
- Loans get cheaper → more loans are taken
- Less is spent on repayments → more money in people’s accounts
- More capital flows into the economy and assets like crypto

But before you go max long on $PEPE and remortgage grandma’s house…

Cool your jets, we are not back yet.

Here’s what we need to watch out for before we go popping the champagne:

1. Market Cap Resistance = Still There

Although some people may be shouting with joy that we reclaimed a $3T total crypto market cap, we are currently retesting this resistance for the first time. So odds are this move is just a bull trap before we dump even lower.

For us to even consider that this was in fact the bottom, we would first need to see a daily close above $3.12T, and more importantly a close above our previous weekly high and then see that big-ass trendline fold like origami.

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2. Retest Mode Activated

In last weeks exclusive for our Dgenz Insiders I talked about this stablecoin dominance chart breaking out and even marked the exact spot it topped out before reversing back down. But right now, this is the first retest of the big daily support.

This is similar to the end of October retest situation where Bitcoin retested $107.5K with stablecoin dominance giving the first retest at the 6.73% level, baiting everyone into thinking we are so back, and it turned out to be the complete opposite.

The danger zone this time?
$90K to $95K on BTC — aka the trap zone.

If stablecoin dominance closes below 8.28%, that’s your greenlight to start thinking we are back. Until then, assume every bounce is bait.

3. Maybe Something…

Now, it’s not all doom and gloom.

The reason why this could actually be a local bottom is because of the weekly USDT dominance chart, which has not just given a weekly close below that resistance but continues to go down. And if you are in our Discord server, you already know that the weekly resistance I just mentioned has been the bottom for Bitcoin during this whole cycle.

• $37K → $74K

• $49K → $105K

• $75K → $126K

It was that very same resistance that USDT dominance could never go past. But the point of discussion here is that we are at a crossroads. Bitcoin’s daily structure is still bearish, so don’t go expecting anything amazing to happen. I still believe this is lower high season and each rebound provides an opportunity to short until we see a clear structure shift.

Stay nimble. Stay sceptical. Stay degen.

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