Table of Contents
Market Pulse
Markets Are Bleeding.. And It’s Not a Crypto Problem
It’s Friday… and the market is getting cooked.
BTC dropped to $65.5K, its lowest level since March 2nd, the first business day after the United States and Israel began bombing Iran. ETH slipped 3.5% to under $1,990, SOL is trading under $83 falling over 4%, and alts are getting dragged across the floor.
In the last 24 hours $400M+ was liquidated with nearly 90% of that being longs.
Too many people got bullish at the wrong time.
And the market did what it always does: Punished positioning.
But here’s the key point most people are missing:
This isn’t a crypto problem.
Because if it was… stocks wouldn’t be dumping too.
• Nasdaq down ~1.5%
• S&P 500 and Dow both down ~1%
And crypto-linked stocks?
Getting smoked.
• MSTR down 5% today
• BMNR down 4% today and at monthly lows
• HOOD down 11% over the last month
That’s not random. That’s risk appetite disappearing across the board.
Oil Is Still Driving Everything
The real driver right now?
Macro. And specifically… oil.
Nothing has changed:
• Iran vs U.S tensions still escalating
• Strait of Hormuz still disrupted
• Oil supply still tight
And as long as that stays true, risk assets stay under pressure.
Because when oil moves higher:
• Inflation expectations rise
• Central banks get stuck
• Liquidity tightens
• Markets go risk-off
Which is exactly what we’re seeing.
Crypto held up early…
But now it’s starting to catch down with the rest of the market.
And the uncertainty isn’t going anywhere.
Trump hinted at pausing strikes yesterday…
Then Israel came out saying they’re ready to escalate further.
Mixed signals = unstable markets.
This isn’t the type of market where you blindly chase longs.
This is where:
• Bounces get sold
• Breakouts fail
• Traders get chopped up
Until macro cools off…
You want to stay patient, selective, and risk-aware.
Because right now:
Oil is driving the bus. And we are all just along for the ride.
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Weekly Charts
USDT Dominance
Looking at the $USDT.D chart you can see here that price action has now broken out above the bullflag signalling a big move into risk off sentiment.
There hasn’t been a retest of the breakout yet though, so perhaps we push into the golden pocket first, before it cools off to go and retest the trendline. This would be a prime spot to load into shorts as we approach the retest level.
However, if we just continue to push through from here then our major next resistance lies at that 8.8-9.1% level where we could look for longs again after a good reaction.
That move would align with Bitcoin heading back to $60k to fill the Feb lows. But, if full technical targets of the bullflag play out we could see prices dip much lower to $53k which is my area of interest to start loading up my long term spot bags.
Bitcoin
Where there is a trendline, there is always a breakout.
Price has started breaking below the ascending trendline and we already have 4HR closes below along with a retest. And we just saw this same pattern play out live in our Discord server on both $SOL & $ETH.
Price is however holding at this support around $65.6K but likely wont hold much longer before we eventually see $63k and then that wick at $60k get swept.
When an ascending trendline breaks in a bear market it usually a rather impulsive move.
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