
Market Pulse
SpaceX Is The Most Expensive Moonshot In History
SpaceX is reportedly going public this Friday at a $1.75T valuation, making it the largest IPO in history. And that sounds insane because, honestly, it kind of is.
The company did $18.7B in revenue in 2025, grew 33% year-over-year, and still posted a $4.9B net loss while spending $20.7B on capex.
At a $1.75T valuation, SpaceX would be trading around 93x revenue.
That is the most expensive large-cap IPO multiple ever.
So if you are buying this thing on day one, understand what you are actually buying.
You are not buying a rocket company. You are buying a giant bundle of Starlink, Starship, AI infrastructure, orbital compute, launch dominance, and Elon premium, all wrapped into one of the most hyped listings of all time.
Starlink is the current crown jewel. It generated $11.4B in 2025 revenue, making up 61% of SpaceX’s total revenue, with nearly 39% operating margins.
That is better than the telecom dinosaurs that spent decades burying cables in the ground.
The rockets get the headlines, but Starlink is the cash engine.
And the bear case is obvious. The valuation is extreme. The company burns cash. Goldman’s base case reportedly needs revenue to grow 25x by 2030. That has never happened at this scale.
So yes, the first few days of trading could be absolute chaos.
The IPO is reportedly more than 4x oversubscribed, which means the opening move could be violent in both directions. Chasing the first candle on a historic IPO is how retail usually gets used as exit liquidity by a suit.
The Real Bet Is Starship, Starlink And Orbital AI
Now for the part that makes SpaceX more interesting than a normal “overpriced tech IPO.”
SpaceX is trying to build the infrastructure layer for the next economy.
Starlink already has over 12M subscribers across 160 countries. But the bears point to falling ARPU, from $99 per month to roughly $64, although that might just be the point.

At $100 per month, Starlink serves rich internet users.
At $10 per month, it starts going after 5 billion people globally.
That is the Uber playbook. Crush margins now, dominate distribution later.
Then there is Direct to Cell, Starlink’s mobile service, which already had 16M unique connections by March 2026 and is adding thousands of users per day. If it scales, it could become a high-margin add-on revenue stream using infrastructure already in orbit.
But the real wildcard is orbital compute.
SpaceX has floated plans to deploy up to 1M satellites as computing nodes in space, powered by solar and cooled naturally by space. The pitch is simple: AI data centers on Earth are running into power limits, water limits, permitting delays, and grid bottlenecks.
SpaceX wants to route around the entire problem by putting compute in orbit.
That sounds like sci-fi until you remember Google and Anthropic are already paying SpaceX huge money for AI compute capacity on Earth, reportedly worth more than $25B in annual revenue combined.
The whole model comes down to one thing though: Starship.
If Starship reaches the cost and cadence targets SpaceX is aiming for, space infrastructure becomes dramatically cheaper. If it fails, a lot of the bull case gets lit on fire.
For investors, this is not a “buy because next quarter looks good” trade.
This is a 10 to 20 year bet on whether SpaceX becomes the company that builds the railroads of space.
High upside. High risk. Maximum chaos.
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Tether Wants Robots With Wallets
While SpaceX tries to put data centers in orbit, Tether is trying to give robots bank accounts.
The company behind USDT just led a financing round of up to $1.4B into NEURA Robotics, a German humanoid robotics firm building humanoids, robotic arms, mobile robots, and service robots.
Other names in the round include Nvidia, Amazon, Qualcomm, Bosch, Schaeffler, and the European Investment Bank. That is not exactly a small cap telegram group.
The interesting part is not just that Tether is investing in robotics.
It is what Tether wants to plug into the machines.
Tether plans to bring its wallet development kit into NEURA’s ecosystem, allowing robots to hold self-custodial wallet functionality, receive payments, and execute transactions inside predefined rules.
Tether also plans to integrate QVAC, its edge AI runtime, so AI models can run locally on devices instead of relying completely on cloud infrastructure. That matters for industrial robotics, where latency, uptime, and reliability actually matter.
This is where stablecoins start getting weird in a good way.
First they were used by traders. Then they became payment rails. Now they are being positioned as the settlement layer for autonomous machines.
For investors, the bigger trend is clear. Stablecoins are not just a crypto trading tool anymore. They are becoming infrastructure for AI, robotics, payments, and machine-to-machine commerce.
And if autonomous agents and robots start transacting at scale, the demand for wallets, stablecoins, settlement rails, and onchain infrastructure gets a lot more serious.
The market may still be chopping, but the rails being built underneath are getting stranger, faster, and much bigger than most people realize.
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Weekly Charts
USDT Dominance
After a big weekly expansion candle, USDT dominance usually does not just keep ripping in one direction. What I’ve been watching since Bitcoin topped in October 2025 is that these big candles tend to create weekly ranges first. Price expands, builds a range, chops around inside it, then eventually sweeps one side before attacking the other.
We saw it after the Nov 17-23 weekly candle. That candle created the range, USDT.D spent weeks inside it, then swept the range low during the Jan 12 candle.
Same thing happened again after the Feb 2-9 weekly candle. That range eventually got swept around May, and once the low was taken without a weekly close below, dominance later attacked the top of the range.
This is the exact weekly range idea I’ve been talking about for weeks.
Big candle creates the range.
One side gets swept.
Breakout traders get trapped.
Then price starts moving toward the other side.
The May sweep was the latest example. BTC was trading around $83K at the time, and I warned that USDT.D sweeping the low without a weekly close below was a strong signal that dominance would likely push toward the range high.
The mistake was waiting for BTC to tap the exact 0.618 around $83.9K-$84K. We were right on the direction, but too precise on the entry, and that meant missing the main short.
Now USDT.D has printed another large weekly candle, so the first thing I’m watching is whether this candle becomes the next weekly range.
If that happens, I do not expect dominance to instantly break the range high, and I also do not expect BTC to immediately nuke below the $59K weekly low. Instead, we could spend a few weeks, maybe longer, chopping inside this new structure before the next real expansion move.
If the range forms properly, the lower end around $59K-$60K could offer a decent BTC long opportunity. Not because I think the macro bottom is in, but because that is where the range trade would make sense.
On the other side, if BTC retests $74K, that is still where I think the real short opportunity sits. A lot of people will probably treat $74K as a reclaim. For me, that is exactly where I would start looking for heavy shorts again.

Bitcoin vs Gold
A few months ago I shared the BTC vs XAU chart and said I had no interest in buying Bitcoin unless this ratio reclaimed the major 16-18 resistance zone.
That level is not random. It has marked some of Bitcoin’s biggest cycle turning points.
The 2017 top formed around this area, then in 2021, once BTC/Gold broke above it, the real bull market started. Then the May 2021 retest of that same zone gave one of the best buying opportunities of the cycle, with Bitcoin trading around $29K before eventually pushing to the $69K all-time high.
Then in May 2022, BTC/Gold lost the level again. That was a major warning sign. Bitcoin was trading around $30K at the time and later dropped another 45-50% into the $15K region.
The reclaim in October 2023 was once again one of the strongest buy signals of the cycle, with Bitcoin around $28K.
And now, in January 2026, BTC/Gold has lost that same zone again.
That was the real warning that the bear market had started. Not just because Bitcoin was falling in dollar terms, but because it was also losing strength against gold. That is the part most people ignore.
Bitcoin can bounce in USD, but if it’s still weak against gold, the bigger picture isn’t fixed.
The next major level on this ratio is around 9.
That level matters too. It marked the 2019 cycle top, when Bitcoin topped around $13K-$14K before eventually crashing lower. Then in October 2022, BTC/Gold bottomed almost perfectly around that same level while Bitcoin itself was bottoming near $15K.
So the question now is simple.
If BTC/Gold lost the 16-18 zone again, does it eventually revisit the 9 level?
If it does, Bitcoin likely has a lot further to fall.
Back in 2022, the move from around 15 on the BTC/Gold ratio down to 9 was roughly a 47% collapse. During that same move, Bitcoin dropped from around $30K to $15K.
Right now, we have a very similar setup. BTC/Gold has lost the same major level, and if the ratio moves back toward 9 again, that same 47% drop from current Bitcoin prices puts BTC right at $34k.
To add even more confluence to this we also printed a giant head and shoulders with technical targets putting the bottom in at around 9.5.

Bitcoin
Now this is where the second chart becomes important.
On the normal BTC/USDT chart, the $32K-$34K area is a major monthly support that still has not been retested. In 2022, Bitcoin eventually came back and retested the old monthly support before forming the real bottom.
If this cycle follows a similar path, then the $32-$34K region isn’t an insane doom target.
It is simply the major level that has not been retested yet.
So the breakdown is simple.
BTC/Gold lost the same 16-18 zone that has marked major cycle shifts for years. The next key level on that ratio is around 9. If that gets revisited, Bitcoin likely trades into the $32K-$38K region, which also lines up with major monthly support on the BTC chart.
That is why I still do not think this Bitcoin correction is finished. Until BTC/XAU either reclaims the 16-18 zone or flushes into the 9’s, I have no reason to call a macro bottom.

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