Table of Contents
Market Pulse
Galaxy Might Be Hiding A Data Center Cheat Code
$GLXY ( ▲ 0.53% ) is currently trading around $25 a share. But by our count, its data center business alone could be worth around $38 a share.
Which means the market is basically pricing Galaxy’s crypto portfolio, trading desk, asset management arm, mining operation, and venture book at less than zero.
Five businesses. Valued like they got rugged in a Telegram presale.
The reason this matters is Helios, Galaxy’s AI data center campus in West Texas.
Phase I is now complete, delivering 133 megawatts of critical IT load to CoreWeave, on time and on budget. That means rent started flowing in Q2, and Helios revenue should start showing up in Galaxy’s numbers as soon as the next earnings report.
That is where things get interesting.
Galaxy’s model is not “buy GPUs and pray Nvidia keeps going up.”
They build the shell, deliver the power, hand the building to the tenant, and collect contracted rent. CoreWeave brings the chips.
No GPU depreciation risk. No hardware cycle panic. Just long-term contracted AI infrastructure cash flow.
CoreWeave has committed to 526 megawatts across Phases I through III, which could generate over $1B in average annual revenue. At steady state, Helios could produce roughly $900M in annual EBITDA.
If you slap a 25x EBITDA multiple on that, in line with contracted AI infrastructure peers, you get around $15B of equity value.
Divide that by roughly 390M shares, and you land near $38 per share.
Again, that is before assigning a single dollar to the rest of Galaxy. So the market either thinks the full Helios buildout never happens, or GLXY is deeply mispriced.
And now that Phase I landed on schedule, the “execution risk” excuse is getting weaker.
The next catalysts are simple:
Helios revenue hitting the P&L, a potential second tenant by the end of summer, and Phase II deliveries starting in the first half of 2027.
In a market where most crypto charts look like wet cardboard, Galaxy might be one of the few names with real near-term upside hiding in plain sight.
Polymarket Gets Sued Over The Meaning Of Yes
Two traders are suing Polymarket, claiming the platform changed the rules after the fact to deny them a payout tied to Strategy’s Bitcoin sale.
The market was simple: Would Strategy sell any Bitcoin by May 31?
And Strategy did indeed sell 32 BTC between May 26 and May 31, and later disclosed it in an SEC filing on June 1.
But because the confirmation landed after the market deadline, Polymarket added a note saying confirmation outside the timeframe did not qualify. The market resolved “No.”
The traders are now suing for breach of contract, deceptive practices, false advertising, and the $1 payout per “Yes” share they believe they were owed.
And honestly, this is bigger than one market.
Prediction markets only work if users trust that outcomes are settled objectively. If traders start believing rules can change after the game ends, that trust gets smoked faster than a 100x long during CPI.
Polymarket has already had more than 1,150 disputed markets this year, and critics have pointed out that a small group of large wallets can heavily influence UMA settlement votes.
That is a serious problem for a platform trying to become the truth layer of the internet.
Prediction markets are one of the most exciting crypto use cases, but resolution integrity is everything. If markets are clean, transparent, and trusted, they can become massive.
But if users think outcomes are being manipulated, the whole thing starts looking like a fixed FIFA match where a certain few also own the scoreboard.
Buy The Dip, Wear The Drip
Markets red. Timelines panicking. Everyone suddenly waiting for confirmation.
So we dropped the tee for the ones still showing up, still watching levels, and still buying.
Clean streetwear fit. Full degen energy.
ETH Treasuries Are Buying While Strategy Is Selling
BitMine just added around $73M worth of $ETH ( ▼ 1.33% ) last week.
Strategy, meanwhile, dumped around $216M in BTC to help cover dividend obligations.
That contrast matters.
BitMine now holds 5.74M ETH, worth nearly $10B, making it one of the biggest Ethereum treasury plays in the market. It also has around 85% of its stack staked, which could generate roughly $235M in annualized staking revenue.
That is the part Bitcoin treasury companies do not get.
BTC just sits there. ETH can produce yield.
And in a market where balance sheets matter more than hype, that income stream gives Ethereum treasury firms a different kind of weapon.
Tom Lee is still leaning into the idea that crypto’s next phase is just beginning, especially if regulatory clarity improves through something like the CLARITY Act. Prediction markets have recently pushed the odds of passage higher, which matters because smart contract platforms like Ethereum likely benefit most from clearer rules.
BitMine stock also jumped after being added to the Russell 1000, which should bring more institutional ownership.
So while Bitcoin treasury stocks are dealing with dividend pressure, mNAV compression, and questions about forced selling, ETH treasury plays are building a different story:
Own the asset. Stake the asset. Earn yield. Let institutions pile into the equity wrapper.
That does not mean BitMine is risk-free. But it does show why the market may start treating Ethereum treasuries differently from Bitcoin treasuries.
One is mostly a balance sheet bet.
The other is starting to look more like an onchain income machine.
Weekly Charts
Bitcoin - Part 1
I found something on the Bitcoin monthly chart that I think everyone should keep in mind while the timeline argues over whether the bottom is already in.
If we take the 2019 cycle low around $3K and draw the Fib to the 2021 cycle high near $69K, Bitcoin’s 2022 bear market did not bottom randomly.
It first reacted around the 0.618 Fib. That gave us a bounce from roughly $28K to $32K, followed by almost a month of sideways chop. Then came the real breakdown into the final bear market low around $15K, which landed slightly below the 0.786 Fib.
Now apply the same logic to this cycle.
If we take the 2022 low around $15K and draw the Fib to the current cycle high around $126K, the 0.618 level lands around $58K.
That is exactly where Bitcoin is reacting right now.
Most people are treating $58K like random support, but on the monthly chart this is where the first major discount zone of the bear market begins.
The last time BTC reacted from the 0.618, it bounced around 14% before continuing lower. If something similar plays out here, a move from $58K could push price back toward $66K-$67K, or the 12% move we already saw was it and we just chop around thise level for another week or so.
But I would not treat that as the macro bottom. For me, the real level is still the 0.786.
In the previous cycle, the final bottom came slightly below that Fib. In this cycle, the 0.786 sits around $39K. So if Bitcoin follows a similar structure again, the final bear market low would likely come somewhere around $36K-$38K.
That is why I still think $36K-$39K is the real magnet for BTC and why we have bids there.
The reaction from $58K makes sense. But unless the bigger structure changes, I still think that bounce eventually becomes another lower high before the real move lower.
The previous cycle gave us the blueprint: Reaction at 0.618. Chop. Flush into 0.786.
This cycle may be doing the same thing again. And if BTC does eventually reach that $36K-$39K region, that is where I would start taking the bottom discussion seriously.
Bitcoin - Part 2
Now, there is another major Bitcoin story we need to talk about.
Strategy just sold 3,588 BTC for around $216M to fund dividends on its Digital Credit securities.
The size itself is not the issue. Compared to the 843,775 BTC they still hold, this sale is tiny.
The problem is the precedent. For years, the entire Saylor and Strategy narrative was built on one simple idea: They do not sell Bitcoin. And now that line has been crossed.
Bitcoin is no longer just a reserve asset sitting untouched on Strategy’s balance sheet. It is now also a liquidity source that can be used to support the company’s capital structure.
That matters.
In the bull market, Strategy’s high stock premium allowed them to raise capital, buy more BTC, and build the “infinite bid” narrative. But in a bear market, if the stock weakens and dividend obligations still need to be serviced, that same structure can flip the other way.
Instead of raising money to buy Bitcoin, they may need to sell Bitcoin to support the machine.
I am not saying Strategy is about to dump its entire stack. That would be ridiculous. But the market does not need them to sell everything. It only needs to realize that the “never sell” floor is gone.
This first sale probably is not the capitulation event. But it opens the door to one later.
If Bitcoin trades much lower and Strategy is forced into a larger sale down the road, that is the kind of headline that can create real panic. Not because of the sale size alone, but because investors suddenly realize the biggest corporate Bitcoin treasury is not an untouchable vault anymore.
For me, this is not bearish because they sold $216M.
It is bearish because the rules of the game changed.
And in bear markets, changed rules are how the real damage usually starts.
Stablecoin Dominance
Stablecoin dominance is now sitting right at support, and so far the reaction looks solid.
This is the same area I’ve been talking about for a while now. If stable dominance holds here, then the BTC bounce is likely moving into danger rather than safety.
The reason is simple.
Stable dominance has been trading in ranges for a long time. It does not always break out instantly. Most of the time it moves from range low to range high, and the range low is usually where the better BTC short opportunities start showing up.
That is exactly where we are now. As long as stablecoin dominance keeps holding this support, I would be very careful with fresh Bitcoin longs.
If anything, this is the zone where I would rather start hunting for BTC short setups, because the stable dominance chart is reacting from the range low again.
The invalidation is simple.
If stable dominance loses this support cleanly, then BTC can keep squeezing higher. But for now the support is still holding so further downside across crypto is much more likely.
US Dollar Index
A few days ago, DXY came back into the same $100-$100.5 zone it had previously broken above. And this is a level to be careful with.
Why?
Because if the dollar holds that retest, the BTC bounce likely becomes just another relief move instead of the start of a real reversal. So far, that is exactly what we are seeing.
DXY has reacted from support and is now trading back above the retest zone. That does not mean Bitcoin has to nuke immediately, but it does mean the bullish argument is gone.
If the dollar keeps holding this region and starts pushing back toward 102-103, BTC upside likely gets capped and the market can start feeling heavy again.
And honestly, that already looks like it may be starting.
The reason this level matters so much is because we saw the same thing in 2022.
DXY reclaimed this region, came back for the retest, held it, and then continued much higher. That created one of the worst macro backdrops Bitcoin has ever traded through.
BTC did not just pull back slightly after that.
It bled for months and eventually traded into the cycle lows.
So for me, the invalidation is simple. If DXY loses $100 again, the breakout has failed and Bitcoin can squeeze higher. But as long as the dollar is holding above this zone, I would be very careful assuming the BTC bounce has real legs.
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This week, we opened up the Weekly Charts section for everyone.
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